There is a lot of madness in the world today. I call your attention to Turkey. The country has been a little crazy since the time of Christ. Lying partly in Asia and partly in Europe, throughout its history it has acted as both a barrier and a bridge.

Last week, the ambassadors to Turkey from the US, Canada, France, Finland, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden issued a joint statement calling for the immediate release of Osman Kavala. The Turkish government detained Kavala in 2017 in connection with the 2016 coup attempt. He was acquitted. Then he was rearrested.

The Kavala situation is purely a domestic issue regardless of any supposed “human-rights violations.” But that means nothing in a time when any “big and rich” country thinks they have the right to interfere in everyone else’s business (except for China, of course). “The continuing delays in his trial cast a shadow over respect for democracy and the Turkish judiciary system.”

Turkey’s President Erdogan kicked all 10 ambassadors out of the country. In English, he said: “Who do you think you are?” In Turkish it was “Ecdanını sikiyim” perhaps a reference to the European Crusaders.

There was a time not too long ago when that letter and the response would have been a prelude to war. But this is 2021 when the crazy is the same but different.

You might have to be a little crazy to want to be US president. From Gallup: “Biden’s average third-quarter job approval rating is down 11 points from his first-quarter rating (56 percent). This 11-point decline is larger than any prior president registered between his first and third quarters.” Even Trump only dropped by 4 percent although his net approval was worse than Biden’s.

The rest of North America is not doing well. This is not supposed to happen in Canada. According to a poll by the Angus Reid Institute, nearly half (46 percent) of respondents said they were having “some difficulty” paying for groceries. Over one-third (37 percent) said they found feeding their families “difficult,” while an alarming 9 percent revealed it has been “very difficult” to put food on the table.”

It is not a big deal but, “Onions from Mexico linked to salmonella outbreak in 37 states. If you can’t tell where your onions are from, you should throw them away, the CDC says.” Life is tough in the First World.

Here is some good news, I guess. “India to Add Hundreds of EV Charging Stations Along National Highways with plans to cover 40,000 kilometers by 2023.” The 68.8 percent of the Indian population that live on less than $2 a day were not available for comment.

About the only place on Earth that is showing some signs of sensibility is East Asia, ex. China from time to time. But the real global madness will hit in the next 18 months.

Two scenarios. The US dollar appreciates from the current US dollar index price of 93 back to the year 2000 level at 115—or more—for a 25- percent increase. If that happens, all the US dollar denominated debt due and payable by countries like India (52 percent of its total debt) or Argentina (55 percent) will be at least 25 percent more expensive.

Dollar-denominated debt outside US is $12.6 trillion from both the public and private sector. Think 1997 Asian crisis on steroids.

Alternatively, the US dollar depreciates to the 2010 area at 80—or less —down 15 percent to 20 percent. Americans will not be able to afford all their imported goods. Further, the US Fed might be forced to raise interest rates much higher than expected.

Either way, the global economy is still going to be in ICU for some time. The madness will continue.

E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis provided by AAA Southeast Equities Inc.



Global outlook: Not good
Source: News Paper Radio